Gaia - What is it?  Hold mouse over image.
Dr. James Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis
 

"Katrina is the first sip, the first taste, of a bitter cup that will be proffered to us over and over again. It is up to us [to tackle climate change], and it does involve accepting that there is a legitimate role for government.”
Al Gore, former U.S. Vice President
Katrina Shows Effect of Climate Change, Says Gore
Fiona Harvey    Financial Times (UK)   September 17, 2005

"It's a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.  ...Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun.  ...If this makes the climate loonies in the States realise we've got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation."
Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, United Kingdom referring to the Bush Administration's refusal to acknowledge global warming
This IS Global Warming, Says Environmental Chief
Michael McCarthy     The Independent (UK)    September 23, 2005

NOAA SKY PHOTO INDEX: WHAT KATRINA DID

Dr. James Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis

'Past the Point of No Return'
Steve Connor     The Independent (UK)     September 16, 2005

Study Links Global Warming to Stronger Storms
Eric Burger     Houston Chronicle (TX)    September 16, 2005

Global Warming Hits New Orleans
The Controversy After the Storm
Jeremy Rifkin     The Chosun (Korea)     September 6, 2005

• Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment
  Webster, Holland, Curry H.R. Chang     Science    September 16, 2005
• Katrina Among Strongest Hurricanes Ever to Strike U.S.
  NOAA    September 15, 2005
• Storms Get Fewer but Fiercer       Nature        September 15, 2005
• New Observations and Climate Model Data Confirm Recent Warming of Tropical Atmosphere     LLNL      August 11, 2005
• Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?
  John Roach     National Geographic       August 4, 2005
• Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming
  Kevin Trenberth     Science        June 17, 2005
• Sea Level is Rising More Rapidly Along the U.S. Coast than Worldwide    US EPA      January 7, 2000

Perhaps the greatest tragedy of the 1990s is that, in the end, the environmental community had still not come up with an inspiring vision, much less a legislative proposal, that a majority of Americans could get excited about.
The Death of Environmentalism
Global Warming Politics in a Post-Environmental World
Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus     Breakthrough Institute

    As I write this, the fourth in a series of violent hurricanes has just bombarded the Caribbean and Florida. In Florida, more than 30 are dead and thousands are homeless. More than 2,000 Haitians are dead. And ninety percent of the homes in Grenada are destroyed. As Jon Stewart deadpanned on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show,” “God, you’ve made your point. You’re all-powerful.”

Yet it isn’t God we need to be addressing our concerns to - it’s us.

• Death of Environmentalism: The Green Emperor Gets Naked
  David Biddle     Get Underground       September 18, 2005
• Apollo Alliance

• 40 Anti-Global Warming Think Tanks  Mother Jones May/June 2005
• Some Like It Hot   Chris Mooney     Mother Jones    May/June 2005
• Climate of Denial   Bill McKibben    Mother Jones    May/June 2005
• Global Climate Coalition

Global Companies Snub Survey on Climate Change
David Adam     The Guardian (UK)     September 15, 2005

• Carbon Disclosure Project

Katrina Darkens the Outlook for Incumbents
Public Dismay Could Shape 2006 Elections
Jim VandeHei     Washington Post      September 11, 2005

Is Global Warming spawning killer hurricanes?
HURRICANE KATRINA
U.S. GULF COAST OIL & GAS PRODUCTION CRIPPLED
90% OF GULF PRODUCTION IS SHUT IN
28 OIL RIGS ADRIFT
10 REFINERIES OUT
EXTREME DAMAGE
FUEL SHORTAGES
LACK OF DIVERSIFICATION IN ENERGY SOURCES
IS CAUSING HUGE DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY
NATURAL GAS, GASOLINE, OIL AT RECORD HIGHS

Environmental Damage Seen From Shuttle
Jeff Franks     Reuters     August 4, 2005

"There's enough wind energy resources on- and offshore to more than meet the electrical energy needs of the country."
Bob Thresher, Director
National Wind Technology Center

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of U.S. Winds
and Wind Power at 80 m Derived from Measurements
Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering    Stanford University
Journal of Geophysical Research

WHY DO PENNSYLVANIA'S CHILDREN GET THIS, INSTEAD?

RELEASED

Dirty Kilowatts
America's Most Polluting Power Plants
Environmental Integrity
Policy Project
May 2005

"The best way to get clean power is to set national limits on power plant pollution and let the coal industry compete on a level playing field against far cleaner alternatives, including natural gas and wind power."
David Hawkins, Director
National Resources Defense Council's Climate Center
NRDC Blasts Bush Plan to Increase Reliance on Coal

"We will oppose any proposal that will make the costs of using Pennsylvania coal less competitive."
George Ellis, President
Pennsylvania Coal Association
Rendell Wants to Paint the PA State Budget Green
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette   February 4, 2004 

America's 50 Dirtiest Power Plants Emit Up To 20 Times More Pollution Than Plants With State-Of-Art Controls
Power Online     May 11, 2005
    The American electric utility industry has a dirty secret: The 50 dirtiest among the nation's 359 largest power plants generate as little as 14 percent of the electric power - but account for a disproportionately large share of pollution emissions across four major categories: up to 50 percent of sulfur dioxide emissions, 42 percent of mercury, 40 percent of nitrogen oxides, and 35 percent of carbon dioxide pollution, according to a major new report from the nonprofit and nonpartisan Environmental Integrity Project.

Top 50 Dirtiest Power Plants for SO2 by Emission Rate - lbs SO2/MWh 2004

Retreat of Antarctic Ice Gathers Pace
Fiona Harvey     Financial Post     April 22, 2005

"Models are consistently suggesting summertime disappearance
of the Arctic ice cap by 2050."
Naval Operations in an Iceless Arctic
Oceanographer of the Navy           Office of Naval Research
Naval Ice Center          U.S. Arctic Research Commission

ICE- FREE ARCTIC SCENARIO
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEBATE OVER WHETHER RECENT CHANGES IN ARCTIC CLIMATE ARE A NATURAL FEATURE OF CYCLICAL VARIABILITY OR WHETHER A PERMANENT CHANGE IS BEING OBSERVED DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING. THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO IS ONE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME WITH AN APPRECIABLE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.

1. Over the next 20 years, the volume of Arctic sea will further decrease approximately 40%, and the lateral extent of sea ice will be sharply reduced (at least 20%) in summer:
2. Polar low pressure systems will become more common and boundary layer forced convection will increase mixed (ice-water) precipatation. Cloudiness will increase, extending the summer cloudy regime with earlier onset and later decline. The likelihood of freezing mist and drizzle will increase, along with increased vessel and aircraft icing.
3. Sonar operations in the Arctic will experience increased ambient noise levels and the surface duct will be diminished or lost. Ice keels will be shallower and less abundant and the area in which they can be expected to occur will be reduced. Active sonar detection of submarines will become more feasible
4. Within five years, the Northern Sea Route (aka the Northeast Passage) will be open to non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least two months each summer
5. The Russian Arctic is a treasure trove of natural resources. Changing climate will spur and increase in exploitation of energy, mineral and forest resources, especially by or for the benefit of resource-poor Asian nations.
6. Within 5-10 years, the Northwest Passage will be open to non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least one month each summer
7. Both Russia and Canada assert policies holding navigable straits in the NSR and Northwest Passage under their exclusive control. The United State differs in its interpretation of the status of these straits, with a potential for conflict
8. Within 5-10 years, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan will remain ice-free throughout the year

FOSSIL FUEL: HUMANITY'S WORST ERROR?
Biggest-ever Climate Simulation Warns Temperatures May Rise
by 11 ºC
Nature (UK)    January 26, 2005

David Stainforth of Oxford University, the chief scientist of the latest study, said processing the results showed the Earth's climate is far more sensitive to increases in man-made greenhouse gases than previously realized. The findings indicate a doubling of carbon dioxide from the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million would increase global average temperatures by between 2C and 11C.

"If we go back to the Cretaceous, which is 100 million years ago, the best estimates of the global mean temperature was about 6C higher than present. So 11C is quite substantial and if this is right we would be going into a realm that we really don't have much evidence for even in the [geological] record."
Professor Bob Spicer, Open University
Global Warming is 'Twice as Bad as Previously Thought'
Steve Connor    Independent (UK)    January 27, 2005

"Five degrees globally would translate into 15 degrees or so of summer cooling in the temperate to high latitudes. The effects on agriculture, on the growth of plants, on life in the oceans would be catastrophic."
Professor Michael Rampino, Columbia University
Supervolcanoes    BBC     February 3, 2000

Global Warming Crisis: Power Companies Fail to Respond
World Wildlife Fund     November 30, 2005

    Herald  of  Doom?

"The Inuit language for 10,000 years never had a word for robin and now there are robins all over their villages."
U.S. Senator John McCain

RELEASED
NOVEMBER 8, 2004

HOW BAD
IS THIS
NEWS?

DOWNLOAD
REPORT

An Arctic Alert on Global Warming
Peter N. Spotts     Christian Science Monitor      November 9, 2004

Report: Warming Trend Will Decimate Arctic Peoples
Stephen Leahy     Inter Press Service News     September 9, 2004

• Arctic Warming Andrew C. Revkin  New York Times/IHT  October 30, 2004

Report Shows Consumption Outpacing Renewal
World Wildlife Fund     October 22, 2004

• Atmospheric Carbon 'Reaching Danger Levels'
  Alex Kirby     BBC (UK)      October 13, 2004
• see the Pentagon report ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE
  Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall    Global Business Network
  authors of  How Hydrogen Can Save America

HUGE JUMP IN CO2 LEVELS
FROM 1.5ppm/yr AVERAGE INCREASE TO 2.54ppm/yr

Atmospheric CO2 levels derived from measurements in ice cores (Etheridge and Wookey 1989, Etheridge et al. 1996, 1998, Morgan et al. 1997) and direct measurement from Mauna Loa (Keeling and Whorf 2002)
"The world can only hope that these figures are an anomaly and not a real trend."
Duncan McLaren, CEO, Friends of the Earth Scotland
Scientist Finds Huge Jump in Gas that Causes Global Warming
Turkish Press/AFP    October 11, 2004

Atmospheric Carbon
'Reaching Danger Levels'
Alex Kirby     BBC (UK)      October 13, 2004

• CO2 Buildup Accelerating in Atmosphere USA Today   Mar 21 2004
• DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program Adds Partners
  Seven States, Thirteen Organizations Added; Will Help Develop Sequestration Options     US Dept of Energy     June 10, 2004

Also see CLIMATE CHANGE

WILL FOSSIL FUEL BURNING CAUSE CLIMATIC CATASTROPHE?

Tornado rampage, Los Angeles:   from "The Day After Tomorrow"

Ice Age Movie Is Realistic, Says Britain's Chief Scientist
Steve Connor     The Independent (UK)     May 13, 2004

  The catastrophic climatic events of the film's storyline are triggered by the Gulf Stream - the warm current that flows into the North Atlantic - coming to a sudden halt. This brings a dramatic and instant ice age to North America and Europe.
  Sir David [King] said the film, by the Independence Day director, Roland Emmerich, accurately portrayed the difficult real-life discussions that have taken place between climate scientists and politicians, particularly those close to the Bush administration, which is skeptical about global warming.
  "The general interaction between the scientific community and political community is interestingly well portrayed," he said. "The opening scenes setting up the key scientific factors and introducing the viewer to the scientists and the scientific-political interface are in my view remarkably realistic. I think palaeoclimatologists can closely identify with the discussion. The skeptical reactions that the scientists received are also rather well depicted."
  ..."The film does unrealistically concertina into a few weeks a scenario that if it did occur would take decades or even a century." But he added: "It's important that we all take cognisance of what scientists are saying about global warming and by that I mean all political players around the world and this clearly must include the American administration."    more

GOODBYE  EUROPE?
UGLY PENTAGON REPORT EXAMINES POSSIBLE SUDDEN COLLAPSE OF THE
GULF STREAM THAT WARMS EUROPE
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario
and Its Implications for
United States National Security
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
authors of "How Hydrogen Can Save America"
Global Business Network

    "There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment."

• Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network. ...The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. ...Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated to weighing risks to national security called the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed 'Yoda' by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is credited with being behind the Department of Defence's push on ballistic-missile defence.
  Pentagon tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us
  Mark Townsend/Paul Harris    The Observer (UK)
  February 22, 2004

• Much to the surprise of investigators, evidence is mounting that major changes in the earth’s climate can take place in a very short time. Data from ice cores and ocean sediments suggest, for example, that 11,650 years ago the climate in Greenland switched from ice-age conditions to the current relatively warm conditions (a warming of 5 to 10 degrees Celsius on average) in only 40 years. The author describes the oceanic currents that influence climate and establish its stability, as well as “triggers” that may perturb changes -- including the possibility that “greenhouse” warming could invoke a rapid switch.
  Rapid Climate Change    Kendrick Taylor    American Scientist

"It is most astonishing that a research institute that carries sustainability in its name proposes such a scenario as a basis for strategic decisions aimed at a sustainable energy supply."
Matthais Altmann and Werner Weindorf
L-B-Systemtechnik
Germany's L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH
     Defends the Hydrogen Economy
"...a structurally deficient approach..."

Comments on the Paper by Baldur Eliasson and Ulf Bossel
"The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak?"
Werner Weindorf, Ulrich Bunger, Jorg Schindler
L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn, www.lbst.de      July 2003

"The goal set out by [Eliasson and Bossel] 'With this article we intend to take a closer look at some of the energy aspects related to the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier' is a structurally deficient approach as it does not lend itself to detect a number of systematic advantages which can only be found in a systems analysis approach."
     -- Weindorf, Bunger and Schindler

• LBST Analysis: Comments on and analysis of the Eliasson/ Bossel papers     HyWeb     July 15, 2003

• The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak?
  Baldur Eliasson, ABB Switzerland and Ulf Bossel, Consultant   2002

• Energy and the Hydrogen Economy
  Baldur Eliasson, ABB Switzerland and Ulf Bossel, Consultant   2003

• 'CrudeAssumptions' - Germany's Dr. Werner Zittel Rips
  'Impact of a Hydrogen Economy on Stratosphere' Report
  Werner Zittel, LBST      June 13, 2003

June 24, 2004 

U.S. Climate Policy: Toward a Sensible Center
Conference, Brookings Institution     
Statement Prepared for Energy Secretary Abraham

    Our Department has put considerable thought and deliberation into energy technology priorities, and our view is that six principal areas deserve the greatest attention. I call them the six pillars of collaborative climate research. They are: hydrogen, clean coal, safe nuclear power, fusion, energy efficiency and renewable energy.
    President Bush’s Hydrogen Initiative is the first element of our climate strategy. In his 2003 State of the Union speech the President announced his groundbreaking plan to change our nation’s energy future to one that utilizes this most abundant element in the universe.
    The United States is committed to spending $1.7 billion, in just the first five years, to fund the ambitious FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, which will develop emission-free automotive operating systems that run on hydrogen. As the President said last year, “With a new national commitment, our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom, so that the first car driven by a child born today could be fueled by hydrogen and pollution free.”
    We are making good progress toward seeing that happen. In April, I was pleased to announce $350 million in nation-wide funding for science and research projects to help establish a hydrogen economy. These funds are being matched by an additional $225 million from the private sector to advance the President’s goal.
    Hydrogen represents one of the most attractive options to meet both our energy and environmental goals. It has a high energy content, it produces no pollution when used to create energy in fuel cells, and it can be produced from a number of different sources, including renewable resources, fossil fuels, and nuclear energy.
    In the spring of last year, I went to Europe to brief foreign leaders about our hydrogen plan. I met with heads of state, fellow ministers, and representatives from industry and academia to come up with ways we could work together on hydrogen. At the International Energy Agency in Paris, the United States proposed forming an international hydrogen effort. It was our belief that such a consortium could accelerate the international push to the hydrogen economy by institutionalizing joint research and pooling resources. In all these settings, we have met with incredible enthusiasm.
    As a result, in November 2003, we hosted Ministers representing 14 nations and the European Commission to formally establish the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy. This consortium consists not just of the Western, industrialized nations, but also includes India and China—the two countries with the fastest-growing energy demand—along with the Russian Federation, Brazil, and virtually all the major automobile-producing nations.
    This partnership, then, is a comprehensive global framework on which to structure hydrogen research and development. It is an ambitious joint venture breaking new ground in hydrogen cooperation, and is built on the hope and expectation that a participating country’s consumers will have the practical option of purchasing a competitively priced hydrogen powered vehicle, and be able to refuel it near their homes and places of work, by 2020. If our plans are successful, by 2040, hydrogen could replace more than 11 million barrels of oil per day in America alone—almost the equivalent of current U.S. oil imports.

SCIENCE MAGAZINE ARTICLE IGNITES FIRESTORM
"...it does not seem that hydrogen emissions will undermine the obvious benefits of a hydrogen economy."  -- Dr. Peter Lehman
Director, Schatz Energy Research Center

"It is a pity that Science assisted in putting such a faulty publication into circulation, damaging the image of hydrogen in a completely unjustified and unnecessary way."
Dr. Werner Zittel
CrudeAssumptions
Germany's Dr. Werner Zittel Rips 'Impact of a
Hydrogen Economy on Stratosphere' Report

New Study Exhibits the Environmental Harmlessness of a Global Hydrogen Economy
Received by CHBC from Werner Zittel, LBST      June 13, 2003

     The Science magazine published a study ("Potential environmental impact of a hydrogen economy on the stratosphere" by T.K. Tromp, R.-L. Shia, M. Allen, J.M. Eiler, Y. L. Yung, Science, vol. 300, 13. June 2003, p. 1740-1742) which investigates the potential environmental impact of a future hydrogen economy. To be [on] the safe side, the authors assumed that hydrogen emissions from a global hydrogen economy would amount to 120 Tg/yr, at worst, however, also pointing out that "it is likely that such emissions could be limited or even made negligible, although at some cost."  With these worst case assumptions the authors conclude further that anthropogenic emissions would rise by a factor of four, and at the same time they assumed the hydrogen concentration at the surface to increase by a factor of four, to 2.3 ppmv. However, as [is] well known in the scientific community, usually the decomposition rates also increase with increasing concentration, limiting the final figure to a lower level. For instance, doubling anthropogenic CO2 emissions does not result in a doubling of CO2 concentrations. Therefore the authors admit "Second, a large, possible dominant, sink of H2 from the atmosphere is uptake in soil. ...It is possible that this process could entirely compensate for new anthropogenic emissions, although a study will be needed whether this is the case." In addition, not mentioned in the article, at least part of present H2 emissions will be omitted in a renewable hydrogen economy; these are emissions from industrial fossil burning process (which are estimated in the range of between 10 – 15 Tg/yr in the study but according to other sources could be as high as 57 Tg/yr), and atmospheric hydrogen production by the decomposition of hydrocarbons (CH4 and higher) which, at least partly, are due to fossil energy extraction and burning.

     A direct result of these crude assumptions is that stratospheric water content would rise by about 30 percent – again neglecting that today the largest source for stratospheric water vapor is methane decomposition in high altitudes, which would be reduced once fossil fuel extraction and burning are ceased. Based on this assumption the stratospheric ozone decomposition could be enhanced by about 1 percent. However, according to the authors, indirect effects might be more severe: Colder temperatures would create more polar stratospheric clouds, delay the break up of the polar vortex, and thereby make the ozone hole deeper, larger (in area), and more persistent (in spring). With these assumptions, at worst the ozone depletion is about 5 to 8 % enhanced in the boreal spring. This leads the authors to the conclusion that "anthropogenic emissions of H2 could substantially delay the recovery of the ozone layer that is expected to result from the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons." But the authors also admit that beyond 2020 ozone levels will have recovered to a status where these additional H2 emissions will have much less influence.

     Consequently, the authors conclusion is not to stop a hydrogen economy but to delay the introduction of fuel cells and hydrogen economy beyond the year 2020, not realizing that large amounts of hydrogen anyhow will be handled only beyond 2020, due to the long lead times of its introduction. Keeping in mind the crude assumption are taken in this study, it can be concluded that this study admits that no severe consequences on ozone depletion are to be expected. Finally, other effects were mentioned but not studied: These are a possible influence of H2 decomposition on OH concentration, potential impacts of increased mesospheric H2O levels on atmosphere chemistry, and the influence of higher H2 concentrations on microbial nutrients. But at least concerning the consumption of OH radicals might be more than outweighed by the reduction of other emissions which are decomposed via hydroxyl (OH).

Dr. Werner Zittel [Dr.rer.nat., Dipl.-Physiker], from Germany, is a consultant with L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, a Munich-based consulting company specialising in sustainable energy and transport strategies. L-B-S is a founding member of the European Business Council for a Sustainable Energy Future, a business NGO which promotes compliance with the Kyoto protocol and lobbies in support of climate-friendly technologies and policies at climate negotiations. He holds a doctorate in physics from the Technical University of Darmstadt and worked at the Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics.
     --  The Hydrogen Transition     Dr. Werner Zittel     Global Vision

Tromp, et al, receive polite response from incredulous businessmen...
Hydrogen Fuel Use Could Wreck Ozone Layer, Study Says
-- But Expert from Air Products Says Premise 'Unrealistic'
Kurt Blumenau    The Morning Call, Allentown (PA)     June 13, 2003
     Equipment designs and operating standards hold companies to, at most, a ''near-zero'' leak standard, according to a statement by Nirmal Chatterjee, Air Products' vice president of environment, health and safety, and corporate engineering.   ''To assume and report an expected 10 to 20 percent leakage of hydrogen, from any source, is unrealistic,'' Chatterjee said. ''From a safety, environmental and economic standpoint, it would make the technology unfeasible.''  ''I can't imagine how anybody could assume 10 to 20 percent leakage of hydrogen,'' added Sandy Thomas, president of H2Gen Innovations, a fuel cell developer in Alexandria, Va.

...and an outright condemnation of their work from Eruope:

  ...The article by Tromp et. al. due to wrong assumptions stipulated without proving them according to the state of the art of technology comes to erroneous conclusions. It is a pity that Science assisted in putting such a faulty publication into circulation damaging the image of hydrogen in a completely unjustified and unnecessary way.
    We hope for a correction to be published by Science immediately.
With best regards, Werner Zittel
          Dr. Werner Zittel
          L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH
          http://www.HyWeb.de   and http://www.lbst.de

In a June 18 Letter to the Editor of Science, Dr. Peter Lehman, Director of the Schatz Energy Research Center, points out another reason for Zittel's outrage: "...they base their assumptions on previous work by Zittel and Altman...."

• Potential Environmental Impact of a Hydrogen Economy on the Stratosphere     Tracey K. Tromp, Run-Lie Shia, Mark Allen, John M. Eiler, Y. L. Yung     Science     June 13, 2003

T. K. TROMP ET AL.’S REPORT “POTENTIAL environmental impact of a hydrogen economy on the stratosphere” (13 June, p. 1740) is a welcome addition to the analysis of potential future energy scenarios. However, several key assumptions made in the study represent unlikely extreme cases that are not well connected to current or likely future levels of hydrogen usage or system leakage. As a result, the baseline “scenario” presented in the paper is not a useful starting point for discussion and analysis.
    There are three primary assumptions in the study that, in our view, should be considered more carefully. First, the assumed hydrogen leakage rates of 10 to 20% are based on early analysis of early-generation, small-scale hydrogen delivery systems and are not consistent with other studies, including those cited by the authors, that have measured and projected rates of less than 1 to 2% (and up to 10% only in extreme cases) (1). Thus, based on the hydrogen leakage rate estimates available, and a detailed analysis by one of our colleagues of overall hydrogen leakage from key sources including pipelines, storage systems, compressors, pumps, and vehicles, we believe that leakage rates of 1 to 2% are most likely for mature hydrogen delivery and enduse systems, with the lower-end estimates corresponding to gaseous hydrogen delivery systems, and the higher end to liquid hydrogen delivery (2). This difference alone results in Tromp et al. beginning their model with roughly a factor of 10 overestimate in hydrogen leakage to the atmosphere.
    Second, the study assumes that hydrogen fuel cells will completely supplant “all current technologies based on oil or gasoline combustion” (p. 1740). If fuel cells were to ever fully supplant fossil fuels, it would certainly not take place for many decades. Penetration levels for hydrogen of 30% into oil and gasoline markets over the next half century would constitute a major success. Taken together, these two extreme high-end assumptions result in a 30-fold exaggeration in modeled hydrogen emissions. A scenario with these assumptions replaced by more realistic ones would result in H2 release rates that would have far smaller or negligible impacts on the stratospheric concentration of water vapor.
    Third, the timing of the hydrogen economy envisioned by the authors is dubious. As they note, if the hydrogen economy were to reach the scale they envision by 2050, when the ozone hole is (we hope, based on current trends) largely repaired, the H2 release would have little or no atmospheric impact, even based on their own assumptions. In fact, most assessments of the likely timing of future largescale use of hydrogen see 2020 as a time when it is only beginning to increase significantly. Thus, by the time significant amounts of hydrogen are added to the atmosphere, because of the potential for soil uptake of anthropogenic hydrogen emissions and new control technologies, the levels of CFCs in the atmosphere should be low enough to prevent a significant climate impact due to any impacts on stratospheric moistening and cooling of hydrogen emissions.
    We do not agree with some of the statements made by Tromp et al. that portray their rather extreme case as if it were middle ground—to wit, the phrase “[m]ore or less dramatic scenarios are equally imaginable.” In fact, a more extreme highemissions case is hardly imaginable, even with relatively conventional hydrogen storage and dispensing technologies. When the prospects for future hydrogen storage systems based on metal hydrides, chemical hydrides, and carbon nanotubes are considered (which could result in further dramatic reductions in hydrogen emissions/ losses), it is likely that the leakage rates will be decreased still further. In fact, our estimates indicate that a hydrogen economy would result in an overall increase in stratospheric OH-, not the decrease of the Tromp et al. assessment.

DANIEL M. KAMMEN AND TIMOTHY E. LIPMAN
Center for Interdisciplinary Distributed Energy Research (CIDER)
Goldman School of Public Policy
Energy and Resources Group
University of California, Berkeley

References
1. W. Zittel, M.A.Altmann, in Proceedings of the 11th World Hydrogen Energy Conference, T. N. Veziroglu et al., Eds. (Schön & Wetzel, Frankfurt, Germany, 1996) (available at www.hydrogen.org/knowledge/vapour. htm).
2. M. A. Delucchi, A Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM): Lifecycle Emissions from Transportation Fuels, Vehicles, and Modes, Electricity Use, Heating and Cooking Fuels, and Materials (UCD-ITS-RR-03-04, Institute of Transportation Studies–Davis, University of California, Davis, 2003).

References and Notes
1. W. Zittel, M. Altmann, in Proceedings of the 11th World Hydrogen Energy Conference, T. N. Veziroglu et al., Eds. (Schön & Wetzel, Frankfurt, Germany, 1996) (available at www.hydrogen.org/knowledge/ vapour.html).
2. S. A. Sherif, N. Zeytinoglu, T. N. Veziroglu, Intl. J. Hydrogen Energy 22, 683 (1997).
3. W. Zittel, personal communications. Even if LH2 did become a major item of commerce, a Québec- Hamburg LH2 marine transport system could readily have zero boil-off losses, as described by ( 12).
4. B. Eliasson, U. Bossel, in Proceedings Fuel Cell World (Morgenacherstrasse, Oberrohrdorf, Switzerland), pp. 367–382 (available at www.evworld.com/databases/ storybuilder.cfm?storyid=471 and www.woodgas.com/ hydrogen_economy.pdf).
5. M. Q.Wang, H.-S. Huang, A Full Fuel-Cycle Analysis of Energy and Emissions Impacts of Transportation Fuels Produced from Natural Gas (ANL/ESD-40, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 1999), p. 36 (available at www.transportation.anl.gov/ pdfs/TA/13.pdf).
6. M. Q. Wang ( 5) (personal communication) kindly provided further Gas Research Institute/USEPA, USEIA, Canadian, General Motors, and International Energy Agency data indicating that “a [global naturalgas] leakage rate of 1% is reasonable. The highest rate could be 1.5%. The rate would definitely not go to the 5 to 10% range.” For example, total naturalgas losses from a West Siberian field to German wholesalers, 6000 km away, were measured at ~1% in 1996–97 ( 9).
7. M. Q. Wang, GREET 1.5—Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model (ANL/ESD-39, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 1999), vol. 1, pp. 57–59 (available at www.ipd.anl.gov/anlpubs/1999/10/34035.pdf).
8. M. van Walwijk, M. Bückmann,W. P. Troelstra, P. A. J. Achten, Automotive Fuels Survey: Part 2. Distribution and Use [International Energy Agency (IEA/AFIS), Paris, 1976], p. 176 (available at www.iea.org/ tech/infocentres/AFIS.htm).
9. Annex “Full Background Report” to the GM Well-to- Wheel Analysis of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems—A European Study(L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn, Germany), pp. 74–75 (available at www.lbst.de/gmwtw).
10. Half of 2000 world primary consumption of 368 EJ/year, at H2’s higher heating value (142 MJ/kg). However, H2’s end-use efficiency, chiefly in fuel cells, can be about twice that of fossil fuels, so about the present total amount of energy service would be provided.
11. A. B. Lovins, Twenty hydrogen myths (Rocky Mountain Institute, Snowmass, CO, 12 July 2003) (available at www.rmi.org).
12. J. Gretz, B. Drolet, D. Kluyskens, F. Sandmann, O.Ullmann, Int. J. Hydrogen Energy19, 169 (1994).

Talk radio host Rush Limbaugh's favorite and much-quoted "scientific expert" Bjorn Lomborg, author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist," is castigated and debunked by the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty:

   "Objectively speaking, the publication of the work under consideration is deemed to fall within the concept of scientific dishonesty. In view of the subjective requirements made in terms of intent or gross negligence, however, Bjørn Lomborg's publication cannot fall within the bounds of this characterization. Conversely, the publication is deemed clearly contrary to the standards of good scientific practice."
Hans Henrik Brydensholt, Chairman
Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty

• A Skeptical Look at The Skeptical Environmentalist - Grist Magazine

Earth's Woes Are Real, Lead Scientist Says
Environmental skeptics, who try dismissing the growing threats to Earth's life support system, are "false prophets and charlatans," says the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
by Margaret Munro     National Post (Canada)     February 15, 2002

CALIFORNIA CHALLENGES BUSH OVER GLOBAL WARMING   
California First to Control Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Transportation

"I would prefer Washington take the lead.  In the absence of that, we have no choice but to do our part."
California Governor Gray Davis

California Gets Landmark Green Law
BBC    July 22, 2002

    California is the only state that is allowed by federal law to impose its own air quality standards because its Air Resources Board was established before the national environment agency was set up under the Clean Air Act of 1970.
    That act also allows other states to follow California's lead in environmental matters and there are indications some will do so in this case, dealing a blow to the Bush administration's stand on environmental issues.

    California was the first to require catalytic converters, unleaded gasoline, smog checks and hybrid-electric cars. All were eventually copied by other states, Congress or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, usually after battles with the auto industry.
California Can Set Auto Trend With Global Warming Bill
by Paul Rogers   San Jose Mercury News     July 15, 2002

• On Climate, States Lead by John C. Ryan
  Christian Science Monitor    July 25, 2002
• California's Bill on Greenhouse GasesWould Set a National Standard for Vehicles by Mark Sappenfield
  Christian Science Monitor   July 5, 2002  

Facts on Global Warming    PowerPoint Viewer
     California Environmental Protection Agency
                                
   Climate Change & Its Impacts on California     Assembly Bill No. 1493
                      California Energy Commission                        California Legislative Counsel

July 17, 2002

Dear President Bush:
    Climate change presents the most pressing environmental challenge of the 21 st century. We applaud the efforts of your Administration in the release this May of a formal, comprehensive report that details the seriousness of this problem. U.S. Climate Action Report 2002, U.S. Dept. of State, Washington, D.C., May 2002 (“Report”). Unfortunately, however, the Administration’s current policy is inconsistent with the import of the Report’s findings by failing to mandate reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. To fill this regulatory void, states and others are being forced to rely on their available legal mechanisms. The resulting combination of state-by-state regulations and litigation will necessarily lessen regulatory certainty and increase the ultimate costs of addressing climate change, thereby making the purported goals of the Administration’s current policy illusory. For these reasons, we write today to urge you to reconsider your position on the regulation of greenhouse gases and to adopt a comprehensive policy that will protect both our citizens and our economy.
complete document

Sea Level Rises 'Underestimated'

"The glacier wastage at the moment is unprecedented. ...The IPCC thinks there will be an increase in sea levels by 2100 of 1-23 centimetres due to glacier melt alone. We think it will be nearer 23-46 cm - and that's a conservative estimate."
Professor Mark Meier, University of Colorado at Boulder
BBC     July 17, 2002

Greenland Glacier Warming Antarctic Ice Fringe Melting

Tibetian Glacier Warming
Meltdown Raises Sea Levels

Glacier Loss
Alpine Glacier Melting

Glacier National Park Warming
Snowball Earth   Lee Dye - ABC

These recent losses are nearly double the estimated annual loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet during the same time period [mid-1950s to the mid-1990s] and are much higher than previously published loss estimates for Alaska glaciers. They form the largest glaciological contribution to rising sea level yet measured.
Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers
and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level
A. Arendt, K. Echelmeyer, W. Harrison, C. Lingle, V. Valentine
How Alaska Affects the World
Mark F. Meier and Mark B. Dyurgerov
Science Magazine       July 19, 2002